After two weeks of intensive negotiations, the 28th Climate Change Conference in Dubai has come to an end. Surprisingly, the final agreement of COP28 contains the long-awaited mention of moving away from fossil fuels. Read more about the conference here.
H.E. Dr. Sultan Al Jaber, President of COP28 and H.E. Simon Stiell, UNFCCC Executive Secretary during the closing plenary of the UN Climate Change Conference COP28 at Expo City Dubai on December 13, 2023 in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. (Photo: COP28 / Mahmoud Khaled)
Moving away from fossil fuels
The COP28 climate summit in Dubai came to an end on December 13 after intensive negotiations. The final agreement is seen by many as a major step forward: For the first time in 30 years, almost all countries in the world have agreed to say goodbye to fossil fuels as the main cause of climate change. Even if this agreement is long overdue and not legally binding, it is still a milestone. Some oil-producing countries, first and foremost OPEC, worked until the final hours of the conferences to avoid mentioning fossil fuels in the final document, but they did not succeed.
A clear call to phase out fossil fuels has been discussed at COP conferences for several years. Many countries are still frustrated that this year’s agreement only talks about “transitioning away” and not a complete “phase-out” from fossil fuels. Furthermore, the text contains many loopholes that could allow the production and consumption of coal, oil and gas to continue.
After an early breakthrough in the establishment of a fund to pay for loss and damage caused by climate change at COP28, many countries were disappointed. In particular, there was a lack of new financial commitments from wealthier countries to support the transition away from fossil fuels and adaptation to climate impacts.
Tripling of renewable energies by 2030
COP President Sultan Al Jaber had been criticized for denying the scientific evidence on the negative environmental impact of fossil fuels. He has now been applauded for having succeeded in negotiating an agreement in which fossil fuels are finally mentioned. At the same time, however, the presidency was overshadowed by accusations that the United Arab Emirates had used COP28 to do business with oil and gas. Many representatives of the fossil fuel industry were present. Nevertheless, 200 countries agreed to reduce CO2 emissions from oil and gas in the future.
The Dubai agreement is the first global stocktake that shows how countries can and must accelerate their climate action to achieve the goals of the landmark 2015 Paris Agreement. This comes alongside numerous international pledges to triple renewable energy, take action to preserve biodiversity and reduce corporate emissions. 100 of the 200 member countries committed to tripling global renewable energy installations by 2030 and doubling efficiency rates by the end of the decade.
Some progress has been made on methane emissions, the second worst greenhouse gas after CO2. Fifty oil companies, which account for half of global production, have pledged to end routine flaring of active oil and gas wells. This refers to the burning of excess methane. If this pledge is successful, it will prevent a temperature rise of 0.1 degrees Celsius.
Expectations were low at the start of COP28. The result is far from perfect, but at least progress has been made. (Photo. COP28 / Mahmoud Khaled)
Not even close to a triumph?
Much criticism came from the small island states and developing countries. The lead negotiator from Samoa, for example, said that the move away from fossil fuels must be made on a broader basis in the economy and not just in energy systems. She also expressed concern that carbon capture and storage would still be allowed, which could be a license for some companies to continue extracting oil and gas.
And while an agreement to officially end the fossil fuel era would have been very welcome 10 or 20 years ago, it is now overdue. Delegates at COP28 celebrated the outcome, but according to The Guardian, “it was not the tipping point needed to prevent climate catastrophe, to end the era of deadly fossil fuels or to save the North Star from 1.5°C. To claim it’s a triumph, or even close to it, is simply a lie.”
What happens next? An important date for the countries is the beginning of 2025, when the next Nationally Determined Contributions are due. And at the end of 2024, COP29 will take place in Baku, Azerbaijan, where observers expect a strong Russian influence and fear that oil producers may try to back out. Nevertheless, an oil-producing country has succeeded in introducing an important commitment into a COP. It is now up to the member states to take this signal for the end of the fossil fuel era seriously.