Is it possible to keep the number of infections low by restricting public life at an early stage? A leap back in time, to the year 1918 to be precise, helps us to find answers
In Germany, as in many other countries around the world, public life is now being increasingly restricted. Public institutions are being closed and people are being asked to stay at home and avoid social contact as far as possible. The past also shows us that early precautionary measures and restrictions on public interaction help to save lives.
In 1918, there was an outbreak of a rapidly spreading epidemic. The Spanish flu claimed the lives of around 50 million people in 1918 and 1919. Although Spain was not the source of the epidemic, the press initially spoke mainly of infected people in Spain. This aspect gives the epidemic its name. The disease infects people worldwide and is one of the most devastating in history. However, the number of people infected varies from place to place, depending on the precautionary measures taken by the respective authorities.
In comparison, the cities of Philadelphia and St. Louis are located in the USA. The city of Philadelphia defied all warnings and held a parade on September 28, 1918 with around 200,000 people celebrating. Within a few days, the local hospitals are overcrowded and the number of infected people rises dramatically. In no other city do more people lose their lives as a result of the pandemic. The Spanish flu has claimed more than 12,000 lives here.
The authorities in St. Louis, however, react quickly. They restrict the public life of residents even before the first known case and warn citizens against large gatherings of people. Public institutions such as schools, cinemas, libraries and churches are closed and the parade is canceled. Thanks to these measures, there is no sudden increase in the number of infections and hospitals are prevented from being overloaded. Thanks to these measures, the city of St. Louis has a mortality rate eight times lower than Philadelphia and fewer than 700 people die.